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200 Back The Day 4 Event With Biggest Shifts From Seed (2025 NCAA Scoring Analysis)

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By Will Baxley on SwimSwam

The final night of men’s NCAA concluded, and the Longhorns officially climbed back to the top in a year of coaching and conference changes. Stay tuned for Andrew’s more comprehensive full-meet analysis, but for now, let’s look into how teams fared on the final night of competition.

When looking at psych sheet comparisons, team patterns closely resembled those of the first three days. For example, California, Indiana, and Georgia continued to top the biggest gains list. Cal’s +33 gain in the 200 back, comes as no surprise, seeing as Olympic finalists Mewen Tomac and Keaton Joneswere seeded to not score.

Georgia’s +12 gain in the same event, on the other hand, would’ve been a little less expected coming into the meet. Ruard Van Renen posted an incredible 2.5 second lifetime best (1:39.54 to 1:37.08) to make it into the A-final after being seeded at #22. Van Renen is just one of many examples of the Bulldogs making large, perhaps unexpected strides this weekend.

The 200 back was key for some of the biggest point gainers, and it was also key for some of the biggest point losers. ACC teams NC State, Florida State, and Virginia suffered the biggest point losses of the night. Percentage-wise, the latter two are probably more noteworthy, seeing as they only scored a small fraction of their predicted points. Both the Seminoles and Cavaliers lost double-digit points after not having finalists in the 200 back despite being seeded to do so. Florida State also lost some ground in the 400 free relay, where they finished just outside of the scoring range

The University of Florida, which suffered some of the biggest losses the first three days, had somewhat of a rebound on the final night. Though they still lost points to their psych score, the magnitude wasn’t drastic at -14. The Gators even had a positive delta in the mile thanks to Gio Linscheer’s best time and 9th place finish.

Day 4 Overall

TeamNight 4 ScorePredicted ScoreOver/Under
Cal158126+32
UGA6139+22
Indiana11698+18
Louisville3118+13
Arizona141+13
Minnesota132+11
VT4535+10
Alabama2313+10
Tennessee10496+8
Michigan1612+4
USC1916+3
Kentucky2421+3
Yale1513+2
ASU7675.5+1
Wisconsin000
Army000
SMU000
Delaware000
LSU1213-1
Cornell67-1
Harvard01-1
Penn1720-3
Princeton04-4
Brown1116-5
Georgia Tech05-5
TAMU612-6
Stanford4350-7
Cal Baptist412-8
UNC413-9
OSU818-10
Auburn010.5-11
Texas117128.5-12
Florida8296-14
Virginia218-16
NC State5268.5-17
FSU627-21

 

Mile

TeamPredictedActualDifference
Texas3929-10
Florida297
Cal1716-1
Indiana11209
Tennessee000
ASU770
NC State23230
UGA055
Stanford121-11
Michigan000
FSU000
VT000
OSU000
Louisville000
Alabama10-1
TAMU000
Auburn40-4
Yale13152
Arizona000
Virginia000
LSU000
Brown000
UNC000
USC000
Wisconsin000
Kentucky21243
Penn000
Cal Baptist000
Army000
Princeton000
Cornell000
Georgia Tech50-5
SMU000
Minnesota066

 

200 back

TeamPredictedActualDifference
Texas37.531-6.5
Florida1714-3
Cal286133
Indiana2720-7
Tennessee000
ASU000
NC State93-6

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