By Jared Anderson on SwimSwam
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It’s that time of year again where we at SwimSwam rank out the top 20 high school swimming prospects in the upcoming NCAA recruiting class.
As college recruiting has reached earlier and earlier into high school classes, we’ve continually expanded our recruiting ranks and coverage. Last spring, we ranked out the then-sophomore class for the first time. This is essentially a re-rank of that class, taking into account a year of improvements. Stay tuned to our recruiting channel for more additions to our yearly recruiting coverage:
- Boys & Girls ranks for current juniors – high school class of 2020 (updated rankings from our “Way Too Early” rankings last spring)
- Way Too Early ranks for current sophomore boys & girls – high school class of 2021
- Re-Rank of outgoing senior boys & girls – high school class of 2019
Further reading:
So without further ado, let’s take a look at this class as a whole, then review our ranking methodology (please read it before you get upset about how low the top miler is ranked!) and get into our rankings.
THIS CLASS
- Outstanding class at the top
- Lots of international/long course experience
- Great IM class
- Sprint freestylers have taken huge steps forward since last year
- Still a little thin at fly and breast, though it’s filling in
- A lot of one-event standouts lower in the class
Last year, we called it a “spirited battle” for the #1 rank, and though the names have changed, that holds true this year. Carson Foster remains our #1, but Luca Urlando has made a massive charge to put the two in basically a dead heat for the top spot. When things get close, we like to lean on data to help us see differences more clearly; in this case, the data only made things fuzzier. With their best times in their top 3 events, each would have scored about 18 points individually at 2019 men’s NCAAs. As far as relay value goes, Foster has a slight edge in the 100/200 free, but Urlando is probably a slightly better value in the 50/100 fly than Foster is in the 50/100 back. They’re pretty much a wash in the 50 free.
Those two characterize the top of the class pretty well: big long course talents with international experience for Team USA. In fact, 8 of the 20 members of last summer’s 2018 Junior Pan Pacs team appear in our class ranks for this list. While our recruiting ranks do take long course times into account at some level, we’re projecting the best NCAA (aka short course yards) values, so all of these swimmers have transferred their speed over to the short course pool at least fairly well.
It’s hard to find high school IMers anywhere near striking distance of NCAA scoring times. For whatever reason, it feels like the IM events take a lot more development to become an NCAA contributor. This class is an anomaly. Foster and Urlando are both NCAA-scoring level IMers already, and there’s lots of depth and upside behind them.
Last year, we noted the depth across the board in all of the freestyle events. That remains true. In particular, the sprinters in this class have stepped up big, going from a class that was deep but without major standouts to a deep group headed by four or five guys who look like true NCAA stud sprinters in the making.
The class is very good at backstroke, but is a little more thin in fly and breast. The breaststrokers in particular are improving pretty fast, though.
Last year, we noted how many swimmers had one standout event, without a lot of range or versatility yet to back it up. At the time, we chalked it up to ranking sophomores who were younger than the recruits we typically rank. But a year later, it’s looking more like a specific characteristic of this class. There are a bunch of guys just off our list who have one true standout event, but not enough support events to make the list: Matthew Jensen is 43.8 in the 100 free but only 20.8/1:38 on either side of it; Justin Fleagle is 19.9 in the 50 free but only 45.1 in the 100; Holden Raffin is 1:43.3 in back, but only 48.0 in the 100; Sean Faikish is 1:44.8 in the 200 IM without any other really noteworthy times. For coaches, that means lots of opportunity for breakout college swimmers – these guys have all shown serious flashes of talent that should continue to come around with one more year of high school and four years of college swimming remaining, even if they don’t have a portfolio strong enough to crack the top 20 at this point.
**The 1000 free isn’t an event at the Division I NCAA Championships, but is swum instead of the 1650 in many Division I dual meets and is part of the NCAA program in Division II.
THE METHODOLOGY
Our goal in these rankings is to reflect what college coaches look for in recruits, based on many years of conversations and coverage.
We focus only on American-based athletes, simply because there is so much uncertainty with international recruits – if they’ll come to the states, when they’ll come to the states and with what graduating class they should be ranked. Projecting international recruits often becomes more a discussion of when they’ll first join a college program and not which program they’ll join.
A few other factors that weigh heavily in our rankings:
- Relay Value – Relay points count double in college swimming, and any program needs a strong stable of quality sprinters to fill out all 5 relays with studs. Obviously, a special distance swimmer can easily rank ahead of a very good 100 freestyler, but college swimming generally values a sprint freestyler over a distance swimmer, all other factors being equal.
- Improvements – Actual times are a the trump card, but any big improvements in quality can make a difference as well. For example, a swimmer who only took up year-round swimming as a junior in high school going the same time as a swimmer whose been swimming year-round since they were 8 will probably get the edge in our rankings. Think Breeja Larson.
- Short Course over Long Course – we recognize that some programs, many programs, put their focus with their high school aged swimmers on long course, especially depending on when the high school championships may fall. That said, college swimming is short course, so a swimmer who is great in short course but struggles in long course will have the advantage over the reverse.
- NCAA scoring ability – NCAAs are the big show for college teams, so we’ve weighted NCAA scoring potential very highly. Swimmers who already have NCAA scoring times wind up mostly filling out the top our of rankings. Since college athletic directors – and by extension coaches – also place high value on conference championships, scoring ability at conference meets is also a factor in our rankings.
- Relative depth in the NCAA and recruiting class – a wealth of elite depth nationwide in one stroke discipline makes a big difference in what times are considered more valuable in that event. Events rise at different rates in the NCAA, but when one event gets extremely deep and fast at the college level, it makes high school prospects in those events a little less valuable, relatively, with lots of other veteran options. In the same way, a recruiting class stacked with swimmers in butterfly, for example, would make each butterflyer a little less sought-after in the market, with lots of other recruiting options able to provide similar production.
Of course, there’s no way to predict the future, and the most concrete data we have to go on are cold, hard times. These rankings in no way mean that all of these 20 swimmers will be NCAA standouts, and they certainly don’t mean that no swimmer left off this list will make big contributions at the NCAA level.
With that out of the way, let’s get to our rankings.
Disclaimer: there are a lot of high school seniors in the country, and no really good, complete, 100% accurate listing of them all. If you don’t see your favorite swimmer on the list, feel free to politely point them out in the comments. There’s a chance that we disagree with your assessment of their spot in the top 20, and so long as it’s done civilly, there’s no problem with differences of opinions. There’s also a chance that we’ve simply missed a no-brainer (we’ve taken every precaution to avoid that), and if that happens, we want to make sure we correct it.
TOP 20 SWIMMERS FROM THE CLASS OF 2020
1. Carson Foster (Previous Rank: #1) – Mason Manta Rays – Sycamore High School – Cincinnati, OH **Verbally committed to Texas**
Best Times: 400 IM – 3:40.86, 200 IM – 1:42.54, 200 back – 1:40.07, 100 back – 46.28, 200 free – 1:32.99, 100 free – 43.61, 50 free – 20.11, 500 free – 4:20.21, 100 breast – 53.31, 200 breast – 1:56.53, 200 fly – 1:44.11, 100 fly – 48.39
A potentially sub-3:40 IMer out of high school is exceedingly rare, and Foster is a recruiting gem at the college level. He’s among the best in the class in almost every event and has a wealth of options to focus on at the college level. Foster is far from peaked, either: he dropped a ton of time since our last ranks, when he was 3:44/1:43 in the IMs. He’s also got the best 200 free in the class and projects as a multi-relay threat coming in the door as a freshman.
2. Luca Urlando (Previous Rank: #4) – Davis Aquadarts Racing Team – CK McClatchy High School – Sacramento, CA **Verbally committed to Georgia**
Best Times: 200 fly – 1:40.91, 100 fly – 45.62, 200 IM – 1:42.99, 100 back – 45.66, 200 back – 1:42.11, 200 free – 1:34.38, 100 free – 44.47, 50 free – 20.01, 400 IM – 3:49.58
Urlando was relatively unknown to most fans when we ranked him #4 last spring. He proceeded to become one of the biggest names in youth swimming with a massive U.S. National Championships with some gargantuan long course time drops (from 54/1:58 in the butterflys to 52.4/1:55), and he’s already transferred those improvements over to short course. He’s got the only NCAA “A” final time in the class right now, courtesy of his 1:40.91 in the 200 fly, and he’s got the best 100 fly and 100 back in the class. Urlando still has California’s high school postseason to come this month, and if he can improve his 100/200 frees, he might have a real argument to leapfrog Foster for the #1 spot.
3. Destin Lasco (Previous Rank: #2) – Salvation Army Kroc Aquatics – Mainland Regional High School – Pleasantville, NJ **Verbally committed to Cal**
Best Times: 100 back – 45.93, 200 free – 1:35.17, 100 free – 43.44, 200 back – 1:41.77, 200 IM – 1:44.59, 400 IM – 3:48.22, 500 free – 4:23.77
So far over his junior year, Lasco has improved his freestyles, but his calling-card backstrokes have stalled, as have his IMs. Still, 45-second backstrokers out of high school are rare – we haven’t had a junior at that level since Ryan Hoffer in the class of 2017 – and Lasco has a lot of range and versatility to back it up. 43.4/1:35.1 are going to go a long ways in earning free relay spots down the road, and Lasco may wind up projecting best as an IMer, where high school