Cal Expected To Gain Over A 100 Points Against Psych Sheet Projections On Day 3 (Ups/Downs)

By Sophie Kaufman on SwimSwam

2025 Men’s NCAA Swimming and Diving Championships

• March 26-29, 2025
• Weyerhaeuser King County Aquatics Center, Federal Way, Washington
• Short Course Yards (25 yards)
• Start Times: Prelims: 10 AM ׀ Finals: 6 PM (Pacific Daylight Time)
• Psych Sheet
• Eligible Relays
• SwimSwam Preview Index
• Live Results
• Live Recaps
  • Prelims: Day 2
  • Finals: Day 1

For those unfamiliar with swimming terminology, the concept of “Ups” and “Downs” is a good way to track which teams performed best during prelims. In prelims at the NCAA Championships swimmers qualify for one of three finals: the top eight finishers make the ‘A’ final (Ups) and places nine through 16 make the ‘B’ final (Downs). In finals, swimmers are locked into their respective final, meaning a swimmer in the ‘B’ final can only place as high as 9th or as low as 16th, even if they swim the fastest or slowest time of the event in any final.

With that in mind, we track “Ups” and “Downs” after each prelims session as a way to follow the team race. 

Team Scores Through Day 2

1. Texas — 190
2. California — 159.5
3. Indiana — 146
4. Tennessee — 114
5. Arizona State — 111
6. Florida — 101
7. Georgia — 92
8. NC State — 90
9. Stanford — 81
10. Michigan/Alabama — 43
11. —
12. Texas A&M — 39.5
13. Ohio State — 38
14. Florida State — 34
15. USC — 32
16. Virginia Tech — 29
17. Louisville — 24
18. Georgia Tech/Purdue — 19
19. —
20. LSU — 18
21. UNC — 16
22. Utah — 15
23. Auburn/Wisconsin — 14
24. —
25. SMU — 12
26. Miami (FL) — 11
27. Yale — 9
28. Virginia — 8
29. Kentucky/Missouri — 6
30. —
31. Army — 4
32. Arizona — 1

Yesterday, Texas extended its lead on the rest of the field, bringing a 30.5 point lead into Friday morning. Meanwhile, Cal had a solid Thursday; as expected, the team out-performed their low seeds during the day two prelims sessions, but didn’t do enough to be able to restrain the Longhorns.

Today, California came out swinging. The Golden Bears were still seeded low this morning–Lucas Henveaux, Jack Alexy, and Destin Lasco all made the championship final from a non-circle-seeded heat. Yesterday, they outscored the psych sheet by 17 points after prelims. Today, including the 400 medley relay but no diving, Cal is projected to be +101 against the psych sheet after finals.

Now, as we discussed yesterday, the metric doesn’t hold as much weight for Cal as many expected these star swimmers like Henveaux, Alexy, and Lasco to make the finals; it would have been an upset to see them miss even though that’s what they were projected to do. But, outscoring the psych sheet by 100 points is what Cal needs to catch Texas.

The Longhorns did not have as outstanding a morning. They could have put themselves in position to put the hammer down on Cal and Indiana. Instead, Texas was -17.5 against the psych sheet this morning. The team missed several ‘B’ final appearances that could have consolidated their lead. Instead, the door is still open for another team to catch them.

Ups and Downs

The “Ups and Downs” are a good example of this. Texas has the most ‘A’ finalists (8). However, they do not have any ‘B’ finalists, which means that both Cal and Indiana have them beat on total finalists. Cal will have 12 finals swims tonight as they put a swimmer into every heat except the 100 butterfly ‘B’ final. Further, Cal’s divers get in on the action starting today.

The Hoosiers follow closely with 11 finalists, highlighted by their 100 breaststroke. Indiana was projected to have six finalists in that event and they delivered, putting two into the ‘A’ final and four into the ‘B’ final as the psych sheet projected.

This morning, we saw more mid-major schools shift into gear as well. Following Noah Millard‘s 500 freestyle ‘B’ final win, his teammate Nicholas Finch booked a ‘B’ final appearance in the 100 butterfly. We’ll also see the first mid-major swimming ‘A’ finalists of this year’s championships as Brown’s Jack Kelly and Army’s Johnny Crush made the championship final of the 100 breast and 100 backstroke, respectively.

Projected Scoring

The 400 medley relay will be a decisive moment in the team race tonight. While Cal is projected to outscore Texas by five points after this morning’s swimming events, Texas has a faster seed time in the 400 medley relay, which means that despite the ‘B’ final misses, Texas is projected to extend its lead to 35.5 points after tonight. Cal has performed well in the relays so far, highlighted by an NCAA record in the 800 freestyle relay, and will need to be firing on all cylinders tonight if they want to make any kind of dent in the Longhorns’ lead.

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