2024 Olympics Previews: Winning isn’t for Everyone (Women’s 4 x100 Free Relay)

By Mark Wild on SwimSwam

2024 PARIS SUMMER OLYMPIC GAMES

• Pool Swimming: July 27 – August 4, 2024
  • Open Water Swimming: August 8 – 9, 2024
• La Défense Arena — Paris, France
• LCM (50 meters)
• Meet Central
• Full Schedule
• SwimSwam Preview Index
• Entry Lists

WOMEN’S 4×100 FREE RELAY — BY THE NUMBERS:

• World Record: 3:27.96 – Australia: M. O’Callaghan, S. Jack, M. Harris, E. McKeon (2023) 
• World Junior Record: 3:36.19 – Canada: T. Ruck, P. Oleksiak, R. Smith, K. Sanchez (2017)
• Olympic Record: 3:29.69 – Australia: B. Campbell, C. Campbell, M. Harris, E. McKeon (2021)
• 2021 Olympic Champion: Australia – B. Campbell, C. Campbell, M. Harris, E. McKeon – 3:29.69  

(No puns today, folks. It’s time to get serious [insert winky face emoji here])

Undefeated at the Olympic level in this event dating back to 2012, the Australian Women enter Paris as the heavy favorite in the Women’s 4×100 Free Relay as they are not only the defending Olympic Champions but also the World Record holders. As a nation, they have held the World Record in the event since 2014, when the team of Bronte Campbell, Melanie Schlanger, Emma McKeon, and Cate Campbell swam to a time of 3:30.98, smashing the supersuited record of 3:31.72 set by the Dutch back in 2009.

Since then, they have lowered it a further four times, twice at the Olympics and most recently last summer at the 2023 World Championships in Fukuoka, Japan. The team of Mollie O’Callaghan, Shayna Jack, Meg Harris, and McKeon demolished the record, setting an unbelievable mark of 3:27.96. Not only did they completely skirt 3:28, lowering the record by an astounding 1.73 seconds, but their margin of victory over the team from the United States was a massive 3.97 seconds.

As the only nation to ever have broken 3:30, let alone 3:31, the Aussies seem far and away the winners, but with four swimmers, that is four times the number of chances of DQs or illness to pop up and the Americans, who enter Paris with a reloaded squad from Tokyo,  will be looking to pounce on any missteps. The same too can be said for the Chinese, who, in Fukuoka, set an Asian record and have since shown more speed and firepower.

“Winning is not an event, but a habit. You are what you repeatedly do.” – Aristotle

It’s a true enough statement, and the Australian women have lived up to it. Not only are they back-to-back-to-back Olympic Champions, winning in 2012 (3:33.15), 2016 (3:30.65), and 2021 (3:39.69), the last two in both Olympic and World Record fashion. It’s not just at the Olympics, however, that the Aussies have reigned supreme from 2013 to 2024; they have not placed worse than second at the World Championships, winning in 2015, 2019, 2022, and 2023.

However, past precedent doesn’t necessarily mean they are going to win, and recent performances need to be taken into account. Unfortunately, their results, as of late, do not seem to offer much hope to other nations. At their recent Olympic Trials, the 2023 World Champion in the 100, O’Callaghan, swept the competition as she posted a time of 52.33, her 4th fastest performance ever and just off her time from earlier in the season of 52.27, both of which ranked her the 3rd fastest performer in the world this season.

Finishing behind her was Jack. The Australian became one of the country’s great success stories in Fukuoka as she walked away from the meet with three gold medals and two silvers. Despite not having a spot in the individual 100, Jack’s lead-off of 52.28 made her the 10th fastest performer of all time, and she also posted the 8th fastest relay split of all time when she anchored the Aussie mixed medley relay in 51.53.

Jack’s time from trials of 52.72 was a little off her best but was enough to get by Meg Harris and secure an individual 100 swim. Harris swam a prelims time at the 2024 Trials of 52.52, a time that made her the 4th fastest in the world this season and the 11th fastest of all time, and yet because of the limit of two swimmers per nation will be unable to compete in the individual event as was slower in finals and finished 3rd in 52.97.

Rounding out the expected relay for the Aussies is a Campbell, but perhaps not the one people were expecting. Bronte Campbell nabbed 4th in the race, qualifying for her 4th Olympics. Her elder sister Cate, a four-time Olympic Gold medalist and the owner of the four fastest 100 free relay splits, including the only sub 51:00, failed to make the team as she finished 9th in prelims and subsequently retired.

That said, C2, as Bronte is often called, is an outstanding sprinter in her own right; she holds three Olympic relay medals, 11 long course Worlds medals, and is the 9th fastest performer of all time in the event, swimming 52.27 back in 2018. At trials, Campbell was 53.10 in finals but 52.95 in prelims, a result that makes her the 10th fastest in the world this season (and quicker than her lead-off of 53.01 in Tokyo).

If you’ve been keeping track, then yes, the Australian’s top four swimmers from trials are not only the 3rd, 4th, 7th, and 10th fastest swimmers in the world this season but also the 7th, 9th, 10th, and 11th fastest performers of all time.

To add insult to injury, the 5th and 6th place finishers at trials for the Australians rank as the 15th and 11th fastest this season, with the latter being McKeon, who was the 2021 Olympic Champion in the 100 free and is the only other swimmer besides the World Record holder to have ever been under 52.00.

McKeon actually throws a wrinkle into Australia’s relay options. She will likely qualify for the semifinals of the 100 fly, which are due to take place the same day as the relay, so her participation in the relay is questionable, especially if she hasn’t fully healed from her injury. 7th place finisher Brianna Throssell (53.61) is also on the team, and while slower than McKeon, she did swim a leg in the prelims at the 2023 Worlds. However, if McKeon does swim in the morning and is closer to her best time, does the coaching staff consider using her at night and leaving off either Harris or Campbell?

Whatever the outcome, a conundrum such as this is certainly not going to hold the team back. While, as the chart above shows, their cumulative time is slower than both in 2021 and 2023, there is little doubt that the Australians will be back under 3:30. While it’s not certain that they will break the World record again, the Olympic Record of 3:29.69 is certainly under threat for the third straight edition.

“Winning is more than beating others; it’s about surpassing your own limits and constantly pushing yourself.” – Michael Jordan

It seems like a bit of a cop-out to go with a subheading that allows one to win without actually being atop the podium, but with the Australians’ dominance and the Americans’ lack of success in usurping them, it seemed fitting. Perhaps a better quote would have been from The West Wing, when CJ Cregg said, “We’re moving the goalposts and claiming the match.” (that said, and somewhat counter to the Article title and quote above, it would be incredible to see the US win this. And if they did, would it be a greater upset than the US vs France in 2008?)

And I think a perfect location for that goalpost would be the American record. The US last won a major international gold medal in this event at the 2017 Worlds, when they beat the Aussies to the wall, stopping the clock in 3:31.72, a then-new American record. Two years later, despite a reversal of spots on the podium, the US again lowered the American record to 3:31.02. Since then, in the intervening five years, the US hasn’t been close, finishing in 3:32.81 at the Olympics (3rd), 3:32.58 at the 2022 Worlds (3rd), and 3:31.93 last summer (2nd).

However, the results of the recent US Trials seem to support that positive trend of time drops and show that the record is under serious threat.