200 FREESTYLE
With last year's champion Allison Schmitt of Georgia taking an Olympic redshirt and two other finalists graduated, the 200 free doesn't have an undisputed favorite like the 50/100. Even though there appears to be no clear cut winner right now, Georgia will likely be able to retain their hold on this event thanks to the services of junior Megan Romano. Sixth last year, she's already three-quarters of a second faster than she was at NCAAs last year, and unlike most of her fellow teammates, she was faster at SECs than the Georgia Invitational, so she's been getting progressively better all season and seems to be priming for a stellar performance at NCAAs.
USC Senior Katinka Hosszu has the second-fastest time in the country, just a tenth behind Romano, but it's hard to see her walking away from either event where she is the defending NCAA champion (200 and 400 IM) in favor of the 200 free.
Don't sleep on Virginia junior Lauren Perdue; she may be way at the bottom of the rankings lists, but she is last year's runner-up and has yet to swim her pet event at a taper meet this season. She will most likely take the race out faster than everyone, even the speedsters like Jensen and Kendall, but can she hang on for the last 50?
Even though Romano and Perdue's top-flight experience give them a slight edge, there are a number of girls waiting in the wings just behind ready to pounce if one is off by even a small margin. The remaining spot on the medal stand will be a battle royale amongst a slew of seniors. Karlee Bispo (Texas) is a former national-high school record holder in this event, and probably the best bet for third if she hits her taper. Her Big 12 rival Shara Stafford (Missouri) and two sprinters extending themselves to the 200 in Amanda Kendall (LSU) and Liv Jensen (Cal) should be there as well.
Georgia sophomore Shannon Vreeland should move up to a finals appearance here, but she's better as the distance increases, as is Tennessee sophomore Lindsay Gendron, who looked exceptional at SECs, and was also last year's consols winner. It took a 1:44.14 to make finals last year, and the top four finishers were separated by eight-tenths of a second. Don't be surprised to see the entire top 8 within that margin this year. Though Romano has the edge, make no mistake that this could be a very close race.
Winner: Megan Romano (Georgia)
Runner-Up: Lauren Perdue (Virginia)
Finals: Karlee Bispo (Texas), Shara Stafford (Missouri), Amanda Kendall (LSU), Liv Jensen (Cal), Shannon Vreeland (Georgia), Lindsay Gendron (Tennessee)
On-the-Bubble: Sara Isakovic (Cal) – she has an Olympic silver medal in this event and looked good at Pac-10s but appears to have more focus on the fly events as of late. Alyssa Anderson (Arizona) is better as the distance increases but could challenge for a finals spot if she's on. Catherine Breed (Cal) has shown some speed as a freshman, but the nod goes to experience this year in this event.
Wildcard: Stanford junior Andi Murez tanked out at NCAAs last year in this event, but has dropped more than a second into the 1:44s this year and has been considerably more consistent this year. If she can keep it up, she could be in the running for a finals spot.
Darkhorse Finalist: Jordan Mattern (Georgia) doesn't have the raw speed of many of these swimmers, but she has managed to drop time at every chance this season, and coming from the same club team in Colorado as Missy Franklin, she's clearly trained and raced against the best. As a freshman, her lack of experience in dealing with the rigors of NCAAs might be a hindrance, but then again, she might also be that freshman surprise we seem to see at least once a year. Given Georgia's tradition in the 200 free, the latter would be a safe bet.